Sources with knowledge of Kremlin discussions indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not expected to meet U.S. President Donald Trump’s ceasefire request ahead of the sanctions deadline this Friday.
Three sources close to the Kremlin informed Reuters that Vladimir Putin’s priority is to fully control the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, which Russia has claimed. Putin would consider a broader peace deal only once these areas are secured.
Trump has threatened new sanctions and 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, particularly China and India, if Moscow does not halt its military campaign. Yet Putin is skeptical that further U.S. measures will significantly impact Russia’s war effort after nearly four years of economic penalties.
“He knows Trump is serious, and he doesn’t want to anger him,” one source said. “But his top priority is completing the war goals.”
Kremlin Weighs Strategy
Putin sees the current summer offensive as an opportunity to consolidate battlefield gains. Russian forces have advanced slowly but steadily, with Ukraine losing 502 square kilometers in July, according to Finland’s Black Bird Group. Overall, Moscow now occupies roughly a fifth of Ukraine.
Russian military leaders have told Putin that Ukrainian defenses could collapse in two or three months. For now, he believes stopping short would undermine both his army and his political standing.
James Rodgers, author of the upcoming book The Return of Russia, said Putin’s reputation is tied to the war.
“He sees himself as defending Russia’s interests against the West. Stopping now, without achieving his stated goals, would be unthinkable for him,” Rodgers said.
Diplomatic Tensions with Washington
This week, Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is due in Moscow for one last attempt to reach an agreement before the ultimatum expires.
The Kremlin has not made any public statements regarding Trump’s threats. Behind the scenes, however, Russian officials recognize the strain on U.S. relations but are doubtful that Trump will fully follow through.
One source said Moscow does not believe China would halt Russian oil purchases at Trump’s request, adding that such measures could backfire by raising global energy prices.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has endured some of the war’s deadliest strikes this year, with Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko urging “maximum pressure” on Russia. A recent attack on Kyiv killed 31 people, including five children.
Despite years of sanctions, Russia has maintained its war effort, bolstered by ammunition from North Korea and dual-use imports from China. Foreign investment has plummeted and $300 billion in Russian central bank assets remain frozen abroad, but the Kremlin insists the country has adapted.
As the deadline approaches, Putin appears to be betting that military momentum outweighs diplomatic pressure. Whether Trump enforces his threat could shape the next phase of the war.
