Bangladesh’s key win over Sri Lanka has lifted them to ninth in the ODI rankings — just one spot shy of automatic World Cup qualification. Only the top eight go through without a playoff.
But with South Africa hosting and already in that top group, a loophole opens up. This effectively makes ninth place the new cutoff for automatic qualification. While nothing is set in stone, it puts Bangladesh in a fantastic position to qualify directly.
Every ODI from now until March 31, 2027, carries weight.
Winning this series would not only make history—it would tighten Bangladesh’s grip on that ninth spot.
Since their first bilateral ODI series in Sri Lanka back in 2002, Bangladesh has played six series there. Four ended in whitewashes. The other two were drawn. A series win has never happened.
They’re close this time.
Despite shaky middle-order batting in both games, Bangladesh now has a chance to break that 23-year streak. The final ODI in Pallekele will decide it.
The focus, as always in Sri Lanka, is on surviving spin. Hasaranga remains a threat. Mehidy Hasan Miraz and Towhid Hridoy know full well — another batting collapse just isn’t an option for the Tigers.
But there have been standout performances too.
Parvez Hossain Emon played only his second ODI in the last match. He scored 77 off 69 balls. Solid, calm, and timely. On the bowling side, Tanvir Islam delivered a five-wicket haul. Like Emon, it was just his second match. Both made their debut in the series opener.
New arrivals often bring a different energy that changes the team’s pace.
Taskin Ahmed, who missed the second match to recover from injury, is likely to return for the decider. His presence will be important if conditions favor pace early on.
The concerns lie at the top.
Najmul Hossain Shanto picked up a muscle injury while fielding in the last game. His participation remains uncertain.
If he doesn’t play, there are two options: Liton Das or Naim Sheikh.
Liton has struggled for form, even in the first ODI of this series. Naim, meanwhile, has not featured in the national team for over two years but has been waiting for another shot. It’s not a straightforward decision.
Team management may lean on experience, but confidence in Liton has wavered.
Then there’s Shamim Hossain and Tanzim Hasan Sakib. Both contributed heavily in the second ODI with bat and ball. Their energy made a difference. Expectations will be high once again in Pallekele.
Sri Lanka, on the other hand, is under pressure to keep their record intact.
They’ve kept their home record clean against Bangladesh in ODIs. Mendis, Nissanka, and Asalanka have led the way with the bat — and they’ll need to do it again.
Can Bangladesh contain them? That’s what fans are wondering.
It’s not just about one match. It’s about legacy. It’s about qualification.
And for Bangladesh, it’s about showing that even with younger players and uncertain form, they can finally win on a ground that has never quite belonged to them.
